UPDATED New Hampshire 2008 Primary Analysis

This page is an evolving compilation of citizen investigation of the highly suspicious New Hampshire primary voting results. We are borrowing and synthesizing from many sources cited and credited here. See links to all additional NH primary articles at foot of this page.
Monday, Jan. 21:

Correcting Factual Errors in Salon: "Was the New Hampshire Vote Stolen?"

by Bruce O'Dell and Theron Horton, Election Defense Alliance
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Friday, January 18: See today's EDA Blog entry:

The Outsourced, Unaccountable New Hampshire Election System

and Implications for the Recounts

by Bruce O'Dell, EDA Co-Coordinator for Election Analysis
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RECOUNTS of all Democratic and Republican ballots cast in the New Hampshire primary are underway.

January 16th: In a telephone conversation with Nancy Swett of the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office at 3:02 p.m. (EST) today, it was confirmed that the required prepayment for the hand-recount of all Democratic Party ballots cast has been received.

Status regarding the receipt for the prepayment of the Republican recount remains unclear at this time.

Those who would like to express appreciation to the Kucinich campaign for taking this stand for national election integrity may read more here:
Kucinich Campaign Files and Pays for Recount of NH Democratic Primary


CORRECTED Statewide New Hampshire 2008 Democratic Primary Analysis
See CORRECTION Note further below (jump link: Read More)

Clinton: statewide optical scan tally
95,843
52.73%

Obama: statewide optical scan tally
85,910
47.27%

Clinton: statewide hand-count tally
16,767
46.75%

Obama: hand count
19,097
53.25%

While the actual difference between Obama and Clinton hand count and optical scan margins are not a mirror image of each other to four decimal places as we had initially believed*, the undeniable fact that Obama appears to have carried the hand-counted tally statewide, while Clinton carried the optical scan statewide tally -- by almost exactly opposite margins -- remains a remarkable result.

* See Correction Note below for full explanation of originally posted information.


MORE links to New Hampshire Primary News and Data.

Overview of NH Polling and Vote Count Discrepancies
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/overview_NH_discrepancies

Table of Machine vs. Hand Count Differentials (Democratic Primary)
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/machine_vs_paper_count_differenti...

"I Count" Volunteer Signup to Hand Count Paper Ballots
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/register_i_count_corps_hand_count...

NH Primary Voting Data Spreadsheets -- EDA
2008NHDemPrimComplete-EDA.xls (Democratic) and

2008NHRepPrimComplete-EDA.xls (Republican)

New Hampshire Binomial Statistics
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/New_Hampshire_Binomial_Statistics


CORRECTION Note on EDA's Previously Reported Statewide Anomaly

On January 10, 2008, analysts at the Election Defense Alliance (EDA) reported that, based on the official results on the New Hampshire Secretary of state web site, there was a remarkable relationship between Obama and Clinton votes, comparing votes tabulated by op-scan to votes tabulated by hand in a head-to-head contest between the two candidates:

Clinton: statewide optical scan tally
91,717
52.95%

Obama: statewide optical scan tally
81,495
47.05%

Clinton: statewide hand-count tally
20,889
47.05%

Obama: hand count
23,509
52.95%

EDA subsequently learned that the list of New Hampshire hand-count voting districts used in our initial analysis on January 10, 2008 was outdated information. Shortly after that list was downloaded the New Hampshire Secretary of State published a corrected list showing 14 districts previously listed as hand-count, as having in fact been counted by Diebold optical scan.[1]

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[1] -- Voting method information was downloaded November 22, 2007 but was subsequently updated November 26, 2007.
The 14 locations that the state of New Hampshire had previously listed as hand-counted but that are actually optical scan, are:

Carroll County -- Moultonborough, Ossipee, Tamworth
Cheshire County -- Fitzwilliam
Grafton County -- Campton, Plymouth
Hillsborough County -- Hillsborough, New Boston
Merrimack County -- Newbury
Rockingham County -- East Kingston
Strafford County -- New Durham
Sullivan County -- Claremont Wards 1, 2 and 3

The net effect was to reduce the hand-count vote and increase the optical scan vote in each county.

[2] -- See Real Clear Politics (below) for a summary of 7 pre-election public tracking polls from 1/5 to 1/7/08, showing Obama in the lead at 38.3%, with Clinton trailing 8 points at 30.0%.

Head to head percentages were calculated as: Clinton = 30/(30+38.3) and Obama= 38.2/(30+38.3)


Real Clear Politics [2] 1.05.08 -- 01.07.08

Average of Seven Pre-Election Polls

Clinton 43.9%
Obama 56.1%

Whenever the outcome of an election is strongly correlated with the method of voting – given the well-known vulnerabilities of the specific model of Diebold equipment in use – additional investigation is warranted. This is especially urgent when the margin between two candidates for ballots counted by hand conforms to the margin between two candidates reflected in hand-count optical scan vote is so far apart -- and the hand count matches the pre-election polling so precisely. Our analysis has continued, and additional findings will be published separately.



NH Primary Voting Data Spreadsheets -- EDA

2008NHDemPrimComplete-EDA.xls (Democratic) and

2008NHRepPrimComplete-EDA.xls (Republican)

Spreadsheets Include:

* Official Democratic and Republican primary voting results as reported on the New Hampshire Secretary of State webpage

* Voting equipment type / hand-counted paper ballot indicator for each voting location

* Election 2000 results and 2000 Census demographics, for each voting location.

Other tabs:

* Original voting equipment type and method data courtesy of Blackbox Voting

* Complete set of 2000 election and Census data for all counties

AttachmentSize
2008CORRECTEDNHRepPrimComplete-EDA-with anomaly.xls820.5 KB
2008CORRECTEDNHDemPrimComplete-EDA-with anomaly.xls902.5 KB