Home
Printer-friendly versionPrinter-friendly version Send to friendSend to friend

Election Fraud

Election Data Analysis

Description:
The Data Analysis Working Group collects and analyzes exit poll numbers, official election returns, baseline historical election data, and relevant demographic data to evaluate accuracy of reported election results and raise early warning of suspect data patterns suggesting election fraud. 

The Data Analysis Group will contribute to the EDA Election Data Project by developing data conversion tools and procedures to standardize election data collected from all electoral jurisdictions in the nation, so that normative election data histories and baselines will be prepared in advance of elections. The group will also develop automated analytic software routines to rapidly isolate and examine anomalous patterns that suggest error or fraud in officially reported election results.

With baseline data and forensic data-checking software in place, comparative analysis of exit poll, election result, and historical voting data can be run in real-time as election results are released on Election Day. Anomalous data patterns indicating the possible presence of voting fraud will be flagged for immediate, intensive analysis. Candidates in affected races will be advised against early concessions, pending further investigation, and preparations for hand recounts will be commenced, drawing on recount funds and trained precinct volunteers.

Coordinator:  Harold Lecar   CA

Co-Coordinator: Dale Tavris MD

Members:
Jerry Lobdill TX
Tom Manaugh TX
Sally Castleman MA
Eugenia Sherman FL
Jonathan Simon MA
Jeremy Lewis NY
Sharon Mullen MA
Mary Edwards CA
Cary Nation FL
Dave Kraig NM
Joanna Herlihy MA
Josh Mitteldorf PA
Vic Bobnick NY
Dave Larson  IL
John Wenger  CA
DuncanChesley ME
William Steve Lang FL
James Q. Jacobs  OR
John Belmonte  NY
Conrad Sieber  OR

Additional others who helped in the 2006 Election Data Project are encouraged to join the Working Group

GO TO THE FORUM (Forum access requires Working Group registration)

»

2008 and 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancies Compared

Introductory Summation:

In 2008 the exit poll discrepancy was considerably smaller than in 2004, but it was still well outside the margin of error. I won’t calculate an exact number, since we don’t have all the data yet. But it’s safe to say that the difference is very unlikely to be explained by chance alone.

The fact that pre-election polls provided an estimate very similar to the exit polls in 2008 (The Obama lead was a little bit less in the pre-election polls, but it was surging upwards in the last couple of days, so probably the two were about equivalent) makes it even more likely that they were both accurate.

So that leaves two possibilities: Exit poll bias (and pre-election poll bias as well) or impaired election integrity – that is, election fraud.

Consequently, EDA undertook an effort yesterday to capture exit poll statistics from all major statewide races (President, Senator, and Governor) prior to “adjustment” of the statistics to match the official election results. (Once the statistics are “adjusted” to match the official election results they are worthless for the purpose of assessing the exit poll discrepancy because the “adjustment” erases the discrepancy.)
"What all this means is that, as in 2004, the Democratic candidate performed much better in exit polls than in the official vote count, and the difference was especially large in critical swing states."
To read the complete article, click here
»
Syndicate content