Exit Poll Effort Mobilizing in Iran

Was the Iranian election stolen? There have been numerous highly suspicious circumstances reported that strongly suggest that possibility-- and the government lockdown on the press and violent suppression of dissent only intensify that suspicion. Clearly, millions of Iranians are convinced they've been defrauded.

When in doubt, count. A global NGO called Avaaz (the word means "voice") is rapidly mobilizing resources for an exit poll of Iranian voters and a media effort to publicise it -- working with an international polling firm to do a telephone survey of Iranian citizens to ask how they voted.

Avaaz writes: "Public polling in Iran is heavily restricted, and no-one else is mobilizing fast enough to fund an international exit poll. It's urgent that we pitch in. A telephone poll won't be 100% accurate, but the difference between opposition and government claims is massive -- a rigorous poll can show which claim is remotely near the truth.

Unlike Western organizations, Avaaz's global network has a strong membership in Iran and across the Middle East. Backed by a respected polling firm, our effort will be harder to dismiss by Iranian conservatives. We'll send the poll results to the media and help our members in Iran to rapidly and virally spread the news despite the regime's blackout."

Avaaz is calling for 10,000 people worldwide to pitch in a small amount each to raise $119,000 in the next 72 hours to fund the telephone exit poll. Follow this link to support the Iranian exit poll and pass it along to others: https://secure.avaaz.org/en/iran_vote_truth/ 

We at Election Defense Alliance are in favor of this idea -- having organized and conducted exit polls ourselves in the U.S. 2006 midterm and 2008 presidential elections. And we know that it is crucially important to act quickly before perceptions are fixed and the momentum of events forecloses any possibility for a re-examination of the count.

"Confronted by a growing crackdown, millions of men and women are protesting across Iran, sparked by outrage at the mounting evidence that the Ahmadinejad government may have rigged and stolen Thursday's election. This is a crucial moment for Iran and the world. We can help by urgently organising a rigorous "exit poll" of Iranian citizens by telephone to ask how they voted, publiczsing the results  and helping spread the news in Iran.

Over a third of the votes are at stake. Our poll can establish whose claims are credible. If we can reach $119,000 in the next 24 hours, we can release the results before the Guardian Council's review of the results is complete; and if we raise more, we can expand this campaign. We urgently need 10,000 of us to pitch in with a small amount each."

Support the exit poll now using this secure link:  https://secure.avaaz.org/en/iran_vote_truth/?cl=255588905&v=3506

"The conservative Guardian Council, headed by a key Ahmadinejad ally, is reviewing the vote over the next 9 days. Our poll can be ready before they give their verdict, to counter any further rigging and the violent purge that could follow. There is a real possibility that democracy will prevail.

Ultimate power in Iran lies with Ayatollah Khamenei, who may have backed the rigging -- but he is hired and fired by the Assembly of Experts, chaired by ex-President Rafsanjani who has condemned vote-fixing. If Rafsanjani and allies can get enough votes on the Assembly this week, they can press to re-open the results, even to remove Khamenei from power.

A scientific opinion poll could be a powerful piece of evidence. In the next 72 hours, the Iranian people will try once again to be heard."

Sources:

1. The Guardian: "Iran's regime cracks down on opposition and media", 16 June 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/16/iran-protests-election-recount

2. Al-Jazeera: "Supreme Leader Under Pressure", 15 June 2009
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009616184556951795.html

3. Juan Cole: "Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen", 13 June 2009
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html

4. Analysis by a polling expert of "fishy numbers" in the results announced by the interior ministry:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iran-does-have-some-fishy-numbers.html

5. One of many active live-blogs: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com

6. #IranElections   Live, unfiltered updates via Twitter from Iran and around the world
http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23iranelection

IRANIAN ELECTION TIMELINE

Friday June 12 – Iran’s incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claims 63% of the vote in the presidential election, a result disputed by his main opponent, Mirhossein Mousavi. Ahmadinejad is proclaimed victor that very night.

Thousands take to the streets in protest at the results and clashes break out with security forces.
 
Saturday June 13 – More than 100 members of the reformist Mosharekat party are arrested then released. Among them is Mohammed Reza Khatami, brother of former president Mohammed Khatami.
 
Sunday June 14 – Mousavi announces he has formally appealed against the result of the election to the Guardian Council to get the election annulled, as protests and clashes with security forces continue.

Monday June 15 – Hundreds of thousands of pro-Mousavi supporters take part in a huge rally in central Tehran. At least seven people are killed according to state media.
 
Tuesday June 16 – State television says the rival camps staged more mass rallies in the capital, while the authorities announce restrictions on foreign media, including banning them from covering "unauthorised" rallies. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, says there should be a partial recount if required.  

Attending an international security conference in Russia, President Ahmadinejad says "the age of empires has ended."
  
Wednesday June 17 – Mousavi repeats call for new election, while urging supporters to hold a march and a day of mourning on Thursday for protesters slain in clashes. As two more prominent Mousavi supporters are arrested, Iran’s foreign ministry accuses some international media of becoming the "mouthpiece of rioters."

Tens of thousands of Mousavi supporters defy a ban on opposition gatherings and take part in a "silent" protest, marching through central Tehran. State television broadcasts brief footage of the rally.
 
Thursday June 18 – Throngs of Mousavi supporters march through Tehran in a rally attended by the reformist presidential candidate, before dispersing quietly, witnesses say. The three defeated candidates in the election cite 646 violations in the June 12 poll, according to electoral watchdog the Guardians Council.